Geld Tip: Koerse: Naskokke / Aftershocks

Maandag, September 21st, 2015

Beste SFD Kliënt / Vriend van SFD,

 

Soos meeste mense moontlik gesien het, het die Amerikaanse Reserwebank hul rentekoers Donderdagaand op 0.25% gehou en nie verhoog soos baie kenners verwag het nie. Die verwagting verder was dat ’n verhoging in die rentekoerse ’n daling in wêreldmarkte sou veroorsaak weens die vloei van kapitaal uit ontluikende markte (soos S.A) na die VSA. Die rentekoers is nie verhoog nie, maar daar was steeds Vrydag ’n styl daling in wêreldmarkte; hoekom so?

 

Vir baie jare was Amerika die wêreld se ekonomiese leier. Besluite oor hul koerse sou hoofsaaklik gebaseer word op die arbeidsmark data in die VSA, inflasie in die VSA, BBP groei in die VSA en die rentekoerse in die VSA. Verlede week het die Reserwebank met ’n interessante rede vorendag gekom vir hul besluit om nog nie die koers te verhoog nie:

“Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term”, Janet Yellen.

 

Ek noem dit interessant want Me. Yellen van die Reserwebank het buitelandse ekonomiese probleme (veral China) gelys as die hoof rede vir hul besluit. Dit bewys net die groeiende ekonomiese mag wat China het in die globale ekonomiese landskap en die stelselmatige skuif van hierdie mag vanaf die weste na die ooste. Die markte het Vrydag negatief reageer want as Amerika voel dat die wêreld in so slegte situasie is dat hul nie hul koerse wil lig nie, dan moet die situasie dalk aansienlik slegter lyk as wat meeste mense vermoed het. ’n Koerantopskrif wat hierdie mooi saamvat lees: “Shares struggle on global growth concerns”

 

Dit is baie duidelik dat die wêreld nie ekonomies gesond is nie, maar is dit so erg dat dit die Amerikaners se besluite sal beïnvloed, ten spyte van meeste tekens binne die VSA wat aandui dat hul ekonomie mooi herstel het?

 

Ek het persoonlik ook ’n verhoging verwag, asook ’n daaropvolgende negatiewe reaksie in die markte. Die eersgenoemde het nie gebeur nie, maar die laasgenoemde het wel. Verwag dus nog verdere onstuimigheid in die wêreld vir ’n ruk tot almal kan sin uitmaak van wat werklik aangaan. Die besluit laasweek beteken moontlik ook dat die Suid-Afrikaanse Reserwebank nie ons rentekoers hierdie week behoort te verhoog nie…volgens 18 uit 20 ekonome wat deur Bloomberg gevra was vir ’n opinie.

 

Groete

 

Dear SFS Client / Friend of SFS,

 

As most have already seen, the US Fed decided not to increase their rates but rather keep it level at 0.25%.  This is contrary to what most economists and fund managers predicted/expected. The expectation was that there will be an increase followed by market volatility due to capital flowing from emerging markets (such as SA) to developed markets such as the USA. But why did the markets react so negatively to the Fed NOT increasing their rates?

 

For many years the USA was the global economic leader and when they made a decision about their rates, it was largely based on local conditions such as the labor market data, US inflation, US GDP and US interest rates. This time around their decision was influenced by global economic factors, primarily the struggling Chinese economy. This is interesting and shows the amount of economic power that has shifted from the west to the east. Ms Janet Yellen cited the following as their main reason for keeping rates level: “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term”, Janet Yellen.

 

The reason for the market’s negative reaction to this is based on the possibility that the global economic situation is much more dire than initially thought; so bad that it prevented the US from increasing their rates despite most of the local indicators pointing to a healthy US economy.  As a recent newspaper headline pointed out; “Shares struggle on global growth concerns”.

 

Personally, I also expected an increase and a subsequent negative market reaction. Although the former didn’t happen, the latter did and we expect this volatility to continue for another while until the world can understand exactly what is going on. The decision from the Fed could perhaps lead our own Reserve Bank to keep SA’s rates level this week…as was predicted by 18 out of 20 economists recently surveyed by Bloomberg.

 

Kind regards

 

Ruan Schröder

Beleggingspesialis

Tel:      012 644 4360

Sel:      072 182 7505

e-pos:  ruan@solidariteit.co.za

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